Average Daily Infection Rate or R-values in our models have been calculated at various time points at the “parent” geographic level where confirmed COVID-19 cases statistics are published. This is at Local Authority level for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland and at Health Board for Scotland. These values are not estimated at geographies below the published level, but where a lower level geography straddles more than one “parent” level, an average value is calculated weighted by population. Values above 1 are associated with an exponential increase in cases. Values below 1 suggest that the case values will fall over time, with smaller values indicating that the rate of decrease will be sharper, resulting in far fewer cases and deaths.