The COVID-19 dataset has been prepared by on a “best efforts” basis and is being made freely available as our contribution to the analytical effort that is going on across the UK. The analysis and data provided here comes with no guarantee as to its accuracy and we accept no liability whatsoever for its use by others.

The data is provided under the terms of the: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Licence.

We are making available a COVID-19 dataset that provides estimates of risk factors and COVID-19 infection rates at a range of local geographies (Ward, Parliamentary Constituency, Local Authority and Clinical Commission Group).  The plan is to update the data weekly to enable the tracking of infection rates at a local level over time across the UK.

We have used existing and new datasets to create 20 risk measures that it considers to be relevant to COVID-19.  As part of this, we have applied our disaggregation method where appropriate to estimate cumulative infection rates on an “as is” basis and “timeline adjusted” basis across the whole of the UK.

There are some important points to note about the use of this data

The background and details of our analysis and methods used to obtain our results are detailed in the documentation available from our website.  Anyone considering using our data should spend time familiarising themselves with the documentation before using the data.

All source materials and attribution notices are included in the download.

Version 10 updated: 10/06/2020

The main changes since version 9.0 are:

1. The Infection rate estimates have been calibrated to Antibody testing results for England in the general population. In this approach, we convert the reported cumulative confirmed cases to a cumulative infection rate that is in-line with published antibody test results.  An adjustment is made to account for the reported lag between a positive swab test (pillar 1) and the generation of sufficient antibodies for a positive antibody test (circa 2 weeks).  Calibration between nations within the UK has been based on death counts using England infection rate to death ratio data as the benchmark.  This approach accounts for the different levels of swab testing across UK nations.
2. Changes to the disaggregation modelling approach now mean that for all geographies including lower level and intermediary, the cumulative infection rates increase monotonically over time. This has been achieved by modelling changes in infection rates week to week and reconciling the aggregated cumulative values to the estimated cumulative values at reporting level (e.g. LTLA in England). In previous versions, we modelled cumulative infection rate estimates for each week that could result in “ups and downs” in the timeline progression, particularly at lower geographies (e.g. wards).
3. Changes to the RARID calculation have been made to deal with low confirmed case counts. Where there is insufficient data to make an estimate RARID is now set to value zero.

Version 11 updated: 14/06/2020

No changes.

Version 12 updated: 21/06/2020

1. An adjustment has been made to the Scottish confirmed cases time-series used as an input to our models. This is to account for a step-change in reported cases as at 15th June when all retrospective UK tests were added on that date. The excess cases are deducted and apportioned across all prior dates on a pro-rata basis to correct for this.
2. Changes have been made to the “FutureCasesToCurrentCasesRatio” calculation to ensure the estimates are consistent with the year to date “As Is” values.

Version 13 updated: 28/06/2020

1. An adjustment has been made to the Northern Ireland confirmed cases time-series used as an input to our models. This is to account for a step change in reported cases as at 24th June when retrospective tests were added on that date. The excess cases are deducted and apportioned across all prior dates on a pro-rata basis to correct for this.
2. A new “CovidToAllCauseDeathRatio” value has been calculated using death data for England and Wales between March and May, published by ONS at MSOA level.

Version 14 updated: 05/07/2020

More accurate testing data has been made available, namely PILLAR 1 and 2 (What is PILLAR?). These vary from the current Forecast and As Is models as they use the new PILLAR data releases. This data was used to activate the recent Leicester lockdown and as such should be considered the most accurate reflection of the current situation.

1. Cases ‘As Is’ – This helps to identify locations that based on their demographics and current level of infections require greater vigilance now. Details
2. Cases Model – This model details where infection rates may be low currently, but which based on their demographics have a higher risk of increasing in the future. Details

Version 15 updated: 14/07/2020

We will now be listing which datasets have been refreshed along with any other changes.

1. Following datasets refreshed:
   • Infection Rate ‘As Is’
   • Infection Rate Time Adjusted updated
   • R Value – Last two weeks added
   • Test Cases Results  ‘As Is’ updated
   • Test Cases Forecast Model updated

Version 20 updated: 20/08/2020

1. Within nation calibration to COVID deaths have been changed for Wales and Northern Ireland. This is now applied at Local Authority level . Previously Northern Ireland was at a national level and Wales at Health Board level.
2. Following datasets refreshed:
   • Infection Rate ‘As Is’
   • Infection Rate Time Adjusted updated
   • Test Cases Results  ‘As Is’ updated
   • Test Cases Risk Model updated

Version 23 updated: 10/09/2020

1. The NSPL file for August 2020 has been used for the first time instead of the February 2020 NSPL file. This results in significant reductions to the number of CCGs and their codes affecting England only. In response to user feedback, we will run the old and new CCG data series in parallel for a few weeks. There is also a minor change to the LTLA codes due to a grouping up of LTLAs for Buckinghamshire
2. Following datasets refreshed:
   • Infection Rate ‘As Is’
   • Infection Rate Time Adjusted
   • Test Cases Results  ‘As Is’
   • Test Cases Risk Model

Version 24 updated: 16/09/2020

1. Following datasets refreshed:
   • Infection Rate ‘As Is’
   • Infection Rate Time Adjusted
   • Test Cases Results  ‘As Is’
   • Test Cases Risk Model
   • R-value
   • Future cases to current cases ratio

Version 25 updated: 23/09/2020

1. Following datasets refreshed:
   • Infection Rate ‘As Is’
   • Infection Rate Time Adjusted
   • Test Cases Results  ‘As Is’
   • Test Cases Risk Model
   • R-value
   • Future cases to current cases ratio

Version 26 updated: 01/10/2020

1. The forward projection profile for infections (used to calculate the year-end and future infection rate values) has been amended. The effect of this change is to increase year-end estimates to some extent. This is because the projected daily growth rates are curved to fit current rates at the start then fall gradually to match the long term downward trend after 28 days. Previously the projected growth rates followed a straight line consistent with the long term downward trend from the start.
2. The source data for the Pillar 1 and 2 Cases Model (“As Is” and “Time Adjusted”) has been updated. The source data now covers the whole of the UK instead of just England. The data is also taken directly from the various national daily dashboards which means that the analysis is more up to date.
3. We have added additional variable names and column headings following feedback from users about making the titles clearer. We have also identified a table (CCG19) to exclude in future weeks. Full details on the Metadata sheet. Unless we receive requests to the contrary we intend to make these changes next week.
4. Year-End Infection Rate estimate column added
5. Following datasets refreshed:
   • Cumulative Infection Rate ‘As Is’
   • Cumulative Infection Rate Time Adjusted
   • Test Cases Results  ‘As Is’
   • Test Cases Risk Model
   • R-value
   • Future cases to current cases ratio

Version 27 updated: 07/10/2020

1. Further work has been done comparing the time series data for deaths and positivity rate at national level. As a result of this analysis we have changed our estimation of infection rates used as the starting point for our disaggregation models. Infection rates at source geographical level (e.g. LTLA in England) are now calibrated to a combination of deaths and positivity rate across the time series. Greater reliance is placed on the trend in deaths at the start of the time series (when testing volumes were low) with greater reliance on the positivity rate for more recent data (when testing volumes are high). Cumulative infection rates (year to date) are calibrated to the cumulative deaths by applying a Covid death rate adjusted for the population age distribution at LTLA level together with a cumulative infection rate estimate obtained from trended positivity rates.
2. The source data for Scotland has been changed from Health Board to County as it provides more geographical detail for our disaggregation models and brings Scotland more into line with the data used for the rest of the UK.
3. We have now amended variable names and column headings following feedback from users about making the titles clearer. We have also excluded table (CCG19) and some old variables. Full details are provided on the Metadata sheet.
4. We have now amended variable names and column headings following feedback from users about making the titles clearer. We have also excluded table (CCG19) and some old variables. Full details are provided on the Metadata sheet.
5. R Values are now calculated from our estimated values for infections rather than the source value for cases. This results in fewer zero values but gives rise to greater variation in the estimates at each timepoint (noise).
6. Following datasets refreshed:
   • Cumulative Infection Rate ‘As Is’
   • Cumulative Infection Rate Time Adjusted
   • Test Cases Results  ‘As Is’
   • Test Cases Risk Model
   • R-value
   • Future cases to current cases ratio

Version 28 updated: 11/10/2020

1. Some minor changes have been made to the model used to disaggregate confirmed cases data. This revised model has been used to re-calculate confirmed cases from 20/09/20 onwards.
2. Following datasets refreshed:
   • Cumulative Infection Rate ‘As Is’
   • Cumulative Infection Rate Time Adjusted
   • Test Cases Results  ‘As Is’
   • Test Cases Risk Model
   • R-value
   • Future cases to current cases ratio

Version 29 updated: 22/10/2020

1. Following datasets refreshed:
   • Cumulative Infection Rate ‘As Is’
   • Cumulative Infection Rate Time Adjusted
   • Test Cases Results  ‘As Is’
   • Test Cases Risk Model
   • R-value
   • Future cases to current cases ratio

Version 30 updated: 27/10/2020

1. An amendment has been made to the calibration of “cumulative infection rate timeline adjusted” values to improve the consistency of these values between Nations. This should help address the issue in earlier versions that England “AsIs minus Time Adjusted” values were consistently offset when compared to figures for other Countries within the UK.
2. Following datasets refreshed:
   • Cumulative Infection Rate ‘As Is’
   • Cumulative Infection Rate Time Adjusted
   • Test Cases Results  ‘As Is’
   • Test Cases Risk Model
   • R-value
   • Future cases to current cases ratio
   • Year-end estimate

Version 31 updated: 27/01/2021

1. Following datasets refreshed:

• Cumulative Infection Rate ‘As Is’
• Cumulative Infection Rate Time Adjusted
• Test Cases Results  ‘As Is’
• Test Cases Risk Model
• R-value
• Future cases to current cases ratio
• Year-end estimate

Version 45 updated: 24/02/2021

1. Following datasets refreshed:

• Cumulative Infection Rate ‘As Is’
• Cumulative Infection Rate Time Adjusted
• Test Cases Results  ‘As Is’
• Test Cases Risk Model
• R-value
• Future cases to current cases ratio
• Year-end estimate

Version 46 updated: 03/03/2021

1. Following datasets refreshed:

• Cumulative Infection Rate ‘As Is’
• Cumulative Infection Rate Time Adjusted
• Test Cases Results  ‘As Is’
• Test Cases Risk Model
• R-value
• Future cases to current cases ratio
• Year-end estimate